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CINCINNATI BEARCATS (14-4, 4-1 Big East) at CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (14-3, 4-2 Big East)
2012-01-18

Tip-Off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT

Line: Connecticut -7, Total: 129.5

No. 13 UConn looks to extend its winning streak to three and remain unbeaten at home when they host Cincinnati on Wednesday night in Storrs.

The Bearcats have bounced back nicely since the well-documented brawl with Xavier on December 10, and are 4-1 ATS on the road this year, including a 68-64 win at Georgetown last Monday. Cincinnati is comfortable playing in close games, with four of its five Big East games decided by four points or less. The Huskies have covered their past two games and look to build off an impressive 67-53 road win over Notre Dame on Saturday. Connecticut’s backcourt will be very thin though, as freshman guard Ryan Boatright sits out for the second game in a row due to an ongoing NCAA investigation regarding potential rules violations. Both teams rely heavily on guard play, but UConn holds a significant advantage in the frontcourt with a +6 rebound margin compared to Cincy’s minus-0.1 RPG. The Bearcats will hit shots and keep this game close early on, but look for the Huskies to limit second-chance opportunities on the glass and pull away late. CONNECTICUT is the pick to win and cover.

The Bearcats are a veteran team with their top four leading scorers from last season all back in the lineup this year. Physical sophomore guard Sean Kilpatrick (16.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG) leads the way for Cincinnati, along with senior guard Dion Dixon (14.1 PPG). Cincy ranks fifth in the Big East from behind the arc, shooting 36.8% from three-point range. The Bearcats will need to hit these jumpers against UConn’s poor perimeter defense that’s allowing opponents to convert at a 41.1 percent clip. The Bearcats must get a big game from embattled forward Yancy Gates (12.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG), who will have the unenviable task of guarding UConn’s dangerous inside tandem of Alex Oriakhi and Andre Drummond.

UConn looks to be gaining some steam coming off its most impressive win of the season at Notre Dame. The loss of Boatright definitely hurts the Huskies’ backcourt depth, leaving Jeremy Lamb (17.9 PPG) and Shabazz Napier (13.9 PPG, 6.2 APG) as the only formidable guards in the rotation. Napier must stay out of foul trouble, otherwise the Huskies will be without any true point guard. Now more than ever, Jim Calhoun will need his big men to play up to their potential. Freshman phenom Andre Drummond (10.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG) looks more and more comfortable every game and has posted double-doubles in back-to-back games. The enigma that is junior forward Alex Oriakhi (7.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG) continues to be a mystery, but he had a strong performance against Notre Dame with 12 points and seven boards. The sooner Oriakhi and Drummond learn to co-exist down low, the more likely it becomes for the Huskies to make their third Final Four trip in four years.

NIT Semi-Finals Wagering Preview
2010-03-30

College basketball’s craziness continues in New York in the National Invitational Tournament on Tuesday night. While the NCAA tourney only saw one of its top seeds advance to its inal Four, none of the four teams that were seeded at the top of the NIT bracket moved on to Madison Square Garden, the last three all losing at home in the prior round. This sets up a wide open finish for the "other tournament". Read on for a quick look at both of tonight's semifinal contests, then head over to the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook.com for the latest prices.

(2) Mississippi vs (3) Dayton 7:00E ESPN2

The Dayton Flyers (23-12, 16-15 ATS) came stumbling down the stretch with a 3-6 SU record (1-7-1 ATS), being eliminated in A-10 Tournament by eventual champion Xavier. The Flyers were picked to be conference champions, but limped to an 8-8 record in a league that was much tougher than expected. For whatever reason, Dayton took flight and has won and covered three games in a row by a margin of 14 points per game.

The Flyers are still playing great defense (holding three teams to 37.3 percent or less shooting), but it has been the offense that has brightened up, shooting over 48 percent in this tournament compared to 44.6 percent on the season. Dayton is 8-1 ATS after playing consecutive road games over the last three seasons.

Mississippi (24-10, 18-11 ATS) saw Arizona State fall in their very first contest in the NIT, which opened the door to three encounters at home for the Rebels. They took advantage of the situation and are running away from the competition. Ole Miss has averaged 88 points per game, forcing opponents to keep pace , which they have not been able to do. Terrico White and Chris Warren are living up to their reputation as a guard tandem. With defense not the primary concern, the Rebels are 12-3 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in back to back contests.

Sportsbook.com had opened with Ole Miss as a favorite, but the line has fallen to a Pick and the total of 142 seems about right if these teams were playing 35 minutes instead of 40. This should be a true up and down affair, with plenty of dunks and speed from both clubs and Dayton is 19-10 ATS versus good shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots. Mississippi is 11-3 ATS away from Oxford off a home win scoring 85 or more points.

(4) North Carolina vs. (2) Rhode Island 9:20E ESPN2
Both North Carolina and Rhode Island come in the second semi-final really feeling good about their prospects after winning on enemy floors in really challenging environments, where not many opposing teams escape victorious. The Tar Heels (19-16, 12-20 ATS) went into a real hornets’ nest at Alabama-Birmingham and made enough offense plays while playing great defense (UAB shot 28.8 percent) to come away with the win , 60-55 as 4.5-point underdogs. Much maligned point guard Larry Drew provided steady ball-handling and leadership. While coach Roy Williams would like to believe his guard is finally figuring out what he has been preaching all year, Drew offers this reason for improved judgment and play.

I just don't want to lose," he told the Raleigh New & Observer. "I just don't want to go home. I just don't want to stop playing. I've done my share of my things wrong this season, and I've made my share of mistakes. And I just want to turn things around for myself, and the team." North Carolina is sensational 7-0 AT in road post-season tournament games the last two seasons.

Rhode Island (26-9, 12-17 ATS) is at its best when it's three-pronged scoring attack of Delroy James, Lamonte Ulmer and Keith Cothran are making outside shots, which has been the case in the NIT. The Rams overcame a big deficit at Virginia Tech and won going away 79-72. Rhode Island is 26-15 ATS in road games after one or more Over’s.
Similar to North Carolina, this tournament has been therapeutic for Rhode Island, who started 19-3 and looked like a sure-fire NCAA team in early February. The Rams are a one-point favorite with total of 149, but are 2-9 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this year. The Tar Heels are in the same boat against the spread with crummy 4-13 ATS record after one or more Under’s this season.

Common opponents might be a telling factor in the nightcap with UNC 2-2 & 1-3 ATS (+3.5 point margin) and URI 3-0 & 2-1 ATS, winning by 6.6 PPG.

The StatFox Power Lines for these games show Dayton by 5, North Carolina by 1

CBB: Winthrop favored in Play-In Game (7:30 PM, ESPN)
2010-03-16

About the last thing on the mind of the coaches of Winthrop and Arkansas Pine-Bluff early in the season was a NCAA Tournament game. The Eagles from Rock Hill, S.C. started the year 5-9 and the Golden Lions were 9-14 in the middle of February. However, tournament bids from the Big South and SWAC are earned by winning basketball games at the right time and each school did what they needed to survive and advance. Tonight, the teams will compete in the annual “play-in” game of the Big Dance, with Winthrop listed as a 3.5-point favorite according to Sportsbook.com.
Winthrop (19-13) is the known commodity in this event, having been at the Big Dance five of the last six years, which included a memorable victory over Notre Dame three years ago. The Eagles were flying down the stretch, winning 14 of last 18, playing stifling defense, holding opposing teams to 39.7 percent shooting.

This helps overcome some real deficiencies in putting the ball in the basket, where they convert only 38.3 percent from the field and are dead last in the entire country in three-point shooting (not just the tourney teams) at 25.5 percent. It figures Winthrop had the Big South Defensive Player of the Year Mantoris Robinson, who can wipe the ball from offensive counterpart and block shots.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff (17-15) deserves a great deal of credit for courage. This senior-heavy team played its first FOURTEEN games on the road, five against teams in this field and a couple that just missed. Coach George Ivory was a miracle worker not to lose this squad after 0-11 start.

The Golden Lions are also modest offensively, averaging 64.4 points per game, with their leading scorer Terrance Calvin at only 10.4 points per game.

Winthrop is a 3.5-point favorite and because of each team’s offensive ineffectiveness, the total has tumbled from 116 to 113 at Sportsbook.com.

The best bet for the play in-game might be the total, as neutral court teams with a horrible offensive team, averaging less than 63 points a game (Winthrop), against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 UNDER the last 13 years.

ESPN has this contest starting at 7:30 Eastern from Dayton, with the winner moving on to face top seeded Duke.

The StatFox Power Line shows Winthrop by 7, perhaps indicating a rare under-pricing on the chalk.

CBB: Kansas at Missouri (2:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-03-05

The Jayhawks fell from No.1 and lost their unbeaten regular season in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State last Saturday and have one more treacherous stop left. Kansas’ most immediate goal is to secure a #1 seed for the Big Dance, and a loss at Missouri on Saturday plus anything less than a title in the Big 12 tourney could derail that goal. Read on for a preview of the key Kansas-Missouri contest, plus a Best Bet from the StatFox Platinum Sheet. Get the latest line on the LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.

Kansas played outstanding for all about seven minutes in crushing Kansas State by 17 points and has one last conference clash. Kansas (28-2) travels to the home of their most bitter rival Missouri (22-8, 14-10 ATS), who lies in wait to conquer them. Coach Bill Self has been preaching at season, "We’ve got to have a killer instinct and bury people.” He’s seen his team routinely build 20+ point leads and win by less, which is a big reason why the Jayhawks are only 11-15-1 ATS. That should not be a problem in Columbia, however a 2-13 ATS record after winning 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last three seasons is.

Missouri is in the Big Dance and an upset could improve their seeding dramatically. The Tigers are ferocious at home with a 16-1 record (8-4 ATS), winning by 23.8 points per game. Mizzou’s backcourt is like an unmarked stove, you’re never sure what area is hot, and once determined, that player can stay hot until the next one emerges. Guards Kim English and Zaire Taylor are the most likely to heat up quickly, but sub Marcus Denmon has shown proclivity to ripping the chords also. Missouri needs its pressure defense to force miscues and turn them into points and is 8-2 ATS versus offensive clubs scoring 77 or more points game in 2009-10.

Missouri is 5-11 and 5-9-2 ATS in “Border Wars” since 2001 and the team with the higher three-point shooting percent is 16-0 SU.

The StatFox Power Line shows pick em’ but this is what Steve Makinen had to say about this affair: For having just 27 total samples since ’97, I figure this particular FoxSheets system should be in play for at least three of four games this week alone: Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSOURI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game, in March games. (23-4 since 1997.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 3*). Think about why this is successful. If a team is that good, playing at home, and the line is not more than 3-points, you have to assume the visiting opponent is a better club. That is the case here. The Jayhawks spanked the Tigers by 19 points in January and already suffered their learning loss last Saturday. HC Bill Self won’t be fooled two straight weeks. Play: Kansas

CBB: Kentucky at Vanderbilt 6:00E ESPN
2010-02-19

Kentucky has survived seemingly countless tests to its #2 ranking of late, but on Saturday, the toughest challenge of all may be coming, at Vanderbilt. The Commodores have yet to be beaten at home, and there will be no shortage of motivation after the rather easy win the Wildcats had over them in January. This could prove to be a great home underdog spot. Be sure to follow the line moves at Sportsbook.com on this contest all day to get a feel for where other bettors think this game is headed.

Ask any SEC coach what their least favorite venue in the league and the immediate answer is “Vanderbilt”. Coach John Calipari will have the same hopeless feeling, splitting two halves 60 or more feet away from his team on offense or defense. This feeling will be further intensified since the Commodores are an exceptional team, in revenge mode, and 13-0 (6-5 ATS) at Memorial Gymnasium. Vanderbilt (20-5, 12-10 ATS) is among the better shooting teams in the country at over 48 percent and is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

The last time these teams met on Jan. 30, Kentucky (25-1, 13-11 ATS) built a double digit working margin and never let the Commodores in the game, securing an 85-72 victory. The Wildcats controlled the glass with an astounding +19 rebound margin and scored in the paint when needed. Forward Patrick Patterson deserves props, no longer playing like he was at lido, becoming more aggressive scoring and rebounding. Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in authentic road games having won five of their last six contests.

These clubs are .500 SU and ATS at Nashville since 1997, thought Vanderbilt has won four in a row at home (2-2 ATS). The ‘Dores can tie Kentucky for the SEC lead with an upset; however the favorite is 4-1 in the previous five conflicts.

The StatFox Power Line shows Kentucky by 2.

CBB: Betting Duke and UNC harder than ever
2010-02-11

Duke hasn’t been able to pull away for a big lead in the ACC. Shockingly; North Carolina isn’t one of its top competitors. Holding on to a slim conference edge, the eighth-ranked Blue Devils seem to have an excellent chance to end their struggles against the floundering Tar Heels on Wednesday when the arch-rivals meet at Chapel Hill. Duke is a rare road favorite of 6-points and getting the support of about 90% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.

Duke (19-4, 14-8 ATS) has a half-game lead over Maryland and a one-game lead over Wake Forest atop the ACC heading into its final eight contests of the regular season. North Carolina (13-10, 7-14 ATS), which finished ahead of the Blue Devils the past two seasons, isn’t even in the picture.

The latest edition of this heated rivalry appears little more than an easy chance for Duke to maintain its conference lead. Though the Blue Devils have lost three straight and six of seven (2-5 ATS) in the series, the Tar Heels are struggling through their worst stretch under coach Roy Williams.

Defending national champion North Carolina has lost three straight and six of seven SU and ATS. The storied program appears headed toward the NIT after earning a No. 6 preseason ranking and entering the season as an ACC co-favorite along with Duke. “At times, I feel we are getting better and at other times, I see us regress,” Williams said. “That has been difficult to handle.” North Carolina is 7-19 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons and their losses in this stretch haven’t been pretty, losing by 12.3 points per game.

Coming off a 92-71 loss at Maryland on Sunday, the Tar Heels figure to have their hands full again as they try to stop perhaps the nation’s premier scoring trio.
Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler have Duke believing it can make a strong push in March. Scheyer (18.9 points per game) ranks second in the ACC in scoring, Smith (18.1) is tied for third and Singler (16.6) is seventh. The trio could be set for a big performance against a Tar Heels team that ranks 10th in the ACC in 3-point defense, with league opponents shooting 36.4 percent. Duke, meanwhile, has made a league-best 39.0 percent of its attempts from beyond the arc.

North Carolina is averaging 80.0 points, but has been limited to 69.8 over its last seven games. Tar Heels leading scorer Deon Thompson has been held under 10 points three times during that span. The senior forward is averaging 14.4 points on the season, but has been hindered since suffering an ankle injury last month. Like other teams ranked high in the polls earlier this year, the Tar Heels have been undermined by inferior guard play and they are 0-6 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more PPG after 15 or more outings this season. Duke is 7-0 ATS versus offensive teams like Carolina scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Having a tough time giving Thompson help, North Carolina is in danger of losing four in a row both at home and overall. A loss to the Blue Devils would give the Tar Heels their longest home losing streak since a five-game skid during the 2001-02 season.

Sportsbook.com has North Carolina as six-point underdogs with total of 155.5. Having the Tar Heels being this large a home dog, especially to hated Duke, has to be a sacrosanct among fans and Carolina backers. Yet the facts speak for themselves in wins and losses and UNC is 6-15 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread.

Despite what appears to be an obvious winning situation for the Blue Devils, they have lost three of their last five road games. Duke’s shooting prowess falls off precipitously on the road, scoring 70.6 points per game and converting 31.7 from behind the arc, compared to season averages of 81.3 PPG 39 percent on three’s. Nevertheless, the Dukies 15-6 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last three seasons.

North Carolina beat Duke 79-71 at the Dean Smith Center last season, taking a 130-97 lead in the all-time series. The last five meetings that had a total in the 150’s are 4-0-1 OVER. This game is on ESPN at 9 Eastern, which means Dickie V can gush about his two favorite teams for two full hours.

The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 8, perhaps indicating a slight under-pricing by oddsmakers.

CBB: Ohio State at West Virginia (2:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-22

West Virginia last tangled with the Big Ten Conference on New Year’s Day and was probably sorry it did, leaving West Lafayette and Purdue with its first loss of the season, a 77-62 decision. On Saturday, the Mountaineers get another shot, welcoming Ohio State to Morgantown. WVU has lost three of its L6 games, the Buckeyes have rallied for three straight impressive wins since the return of stud Evan Turner. This figures to be a top-notch non-conference tilt on CBS at 2:00 PM ET, one worthy of your betting attention. Get the latest info on this contest on Sportsbook.com’s LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and GAME MATCHUP pages.

The Buckeyes (14-5, 10-9 ATS) takes a break from Big Ten action to make the trek to Morgantown. Ohio State has responded with playing better basketball with the return of their best player, Turner. His inspired play has led to the Buckeyes playing better a team, with each teammate being back in their role before Turner suffered his back injury. Coach Thad Matta has been tinkering with different defenses and his skill will be called into question against a very diverse West Virginia squad. The Buckeyes are 82-35 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shots attempts, and are projected to hit 47% by the FoxSheets’ Game Estimator.

The Mountaineers (14-3, 6-10 ATS) have proven two things this season, when they come prepared to play, they are Top 10 team, but when they don’t they are as beatable as any other college basketball squad. Coach Bob Huggins demands defensive intensity and when West Virginia players deliver, everything, including the offense, works much more fluidly. After losing to Purdue earlier, West Virginia has opportunity to extract Big Ten revenge on the Buckeyes. The ‘Teers are 21-10 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots a game on the season after 15 or more contests. Ohio State love to chuck it from deep with John Diebler the most dangerous sharp-shooter.

West Virginia last beat Marshall on Wednesday and is 10-3 SU but just 4-8 ATS after a victory. Ohio State is 11-1 UNDER against the Big East.

The StatFox Power Line shows West Virginia by 5. How does that compare to the latest price on Sportsbook.com?