CBB: Betting Duke and UNC harder than ever

Duke hasn’t been able to pull away for a big lead in the ACC. Shockingly; North Carolina isn’t one of its top competitors. Holding on to a slim conference edge, the eighth-ranked Blue Devils seem to have an excellent chance to end their struggles against

2010-02-11

Duke hasn’t been able to pull away for a big lead in the ACC. Shockingly; North Carolina isn’t one of its top competitors. Holding on to a slim conference edge, the eighth-ranked Blue Devils seem to have an excellent chance to end their struggles against the floundering Tar Heels on Wednesday when the arch-rivals meet at Chapel Hill. Duke is a rare road favorite of 6-points and getting the support of about 90% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.

Duke (19-4, 14-8 ATS) has a half-game lead over Maryland and a one-game lead over Wake Forest atop the ACC heading into its final eight contests of the regular season. North Carolina (13-10, 7-14 ATS), which finished ahead of the Blue Devils the past two seasons, isn’t even in the picture.

The latest edition of this heated rivalry appears little more than an easy chance for Duke to maintain its conference lead. Though the Blue Devils have lost three straight and six of seven (2-5 ATS) in the series, the Tar Heels are struggling through their worst stretch under coach Roy Williams.

Defending national champion North Carolina has lost three straight and six of seven SU and ATS. The storied program appears headed toward the NIT after earning a No. 6 preseason ranking and entering the season as an ACC co-favorite along with Duke. “At times, I feel we are getting better and at other times, I see us regress,” Williams said. “That has been difficult to handle.” North Carolina is 7-19 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons and their losses in this stretch haven’t been pretty, losing by 12.3 points per game.

Coming off a 92-71 loss at Maryland on Sunday, the Tar Heels figure to have their hands full again as they try to stop perhaps the nation’s premier scoring trio.
Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler have Duke believing it can make a strong push in March. Scheyer (18.9 points per game) ranks second in the ACC in scoring, Smith (18.1) is tied for third and Singler (16.6) is seventh. The trio could be set for a big performance against a Tar Heels team that ranks 10th in the ACC in 3-point defense, with league opponents shooting 36.4 percent. Duke, meanwhile, has made a league-best 39.0 percent of its attempts from beyond the arc.

North Carolina is averaging 80.0 points, but has been limited to 69.8 over its last seven games. Tar Heels leading scorer Deon Thompson has been held under 10 points three times during that span. The senior forward is averaging 14.4 points on the season, but has been hindered since suffering an ankle injury last month. Like other teams ranked high in the polls earlier this year, the Tar Heels have been undermined by inferior guard play and they are 0-6 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more PPG after 15 or more outings this season. Duke is 7-0 ATS versus offensive teams like Carolina scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Having a tough time giving Thompson help, North Carolina is in danger of losing four in a row both at home and overall. A loss to the Blue Devils would give the Tar Heels their longest home losing streak since a five-game skid during the 2001-02 season.

Sportsbook.com has North Carolina as six-point underdogs with total of 155.5. Having the Tar Heels being this large a home dog, especially to hated Duke, has to be a sacrosanct among fans and Carolina backers. Yet the facts speak for themselves in wins and losses and UNC is 6-15 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread.

Despite what appears to be an obvious winning situation for the Blue Devils, they have lost three of their last five road games. Duke’s shooting prowess falls off precipitously on the road, scoring 70.6 points per game and converting 31.7 from behind the arc, compared to season averages of 81.3 PPG 39 percent on three’s. Nevertheless, the Dukies 15-6 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last three seasons.

North Carolina beat Duke 79-71 at the Dean Smith Center last season, taking a 130-97 lead in the all-time series. The last five meetings that had a total in the 150’s are 4-0-1 OVER. This game is on ESPN at 9 Eastern, which means Dickie V can gush about his two favorite teams for two full hours.

The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 8, perhaps indicating a slight under-pricing by oddsmakers.

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