CBB: Big Ten Battle won’t be pretty (7:00 PM ET, ESPN)

This was supposed to be a consequential Big Ten battle before the season began. For more than two months it looked more like just another game, but both teams ironed out issues and come in with plenty at stake.

2009-02-18

This was supposed to be a consequential Big Ten battle before the season began. For more than two months it looked more like just another game, but both teams ironed out issues and come in with plenty at stake. Michigan State is atop the Big Ten Conference at 10-2 (7-5 ATS) and makes the trip to third place Purdue (8-4 and 6-6 ATS) in West Lafayette. Don’t mind the records however, Purdue is the 3-point home favorite. See where your colleagues are putting their faith on the BETTING TRENDS page.

Michigan State (20-4, 14-9 ATS) has been at the top of the leaderboard as most presumed in the conference, despite two rare home losses in league play. The Spartans have had to learn to play without leader Raymar Morgan, who hasn’t been able to shake walking pneumonia. These types of situations creates chances for others and sophomore guard Durrell Summers has been the one doing most of the damage with several 20+ point explosions.

The Spartans are 7-0 this year in true road games with 5-1 ATS mark. They have opened Big Ten play with six consecutive road wins for the first time in school history and Michigan State is 15-6 ATS as visitors against stellar defensive teams like Purdue, who hold opponents to under 42 percent shooting.

What a year it has been for Purdue (19-6, 11-11 ATS). Guard Chris Kramer suffered a broken nose, point guard Lewis Jackson had a concussion and forward Robbie Hummel continues to struggle with back spasms, due to hairline fracture of his vertebrae. Yet the Boilermakers have played on, thanks to defense that surfaced once Big Ten action started, now ranked second in the country in field goal percentage at 37.3 percent. The school colors may be black and gold, however this courageous bunch, which is black and blue, keeps fighting.

You have to hang your hat on defense because you’re going to have nights like this (49-45 win over Iowa Saturday) where the ball doesn’t go in,” Purdue coach Matt Painter said. “If you can consistently get stops late in the game you’re going to give yourself a chance and we did that.” The Boilermakers are 8-1 ATS in home games off a road win over the last three seasons.

Don’t expect aesthetically pleasing basketball in this Big Ten barnburner. Bookmaker.com has the Purdue as 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 128.5. The spread could be very meaningful based on how these two teams play. Michigan State is 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less or pick and the Boilers are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite in the same exact price range.

Purdue is 5-4 SU and ATS at Mackey Arena against the Spartans and six of last eight meetings have gone Under the total. ESPN has the coverage with Purdue 7-0 ATS in last seven February home games.
StatFox Power Line – Purdue by 1

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