NCAAB: Charity Stripe could decide South Regional

The action in Friday’s South Region Sweet 16 games features Memphis taking on Michigan State, plus Stanford battling Texas.

2008-03-28

The action in Friday’s South Region Sweet 16 games features Memphis taking on Michigan State, plus Stanford battling Texas. Only one of these four teams will advance to San Antonio next weekend. Over 80%% of bettors are convinced Texas will be one of the two clubs battling on Sunday.

Memphis coach John Calipari has used a little so-called “dollar diplomacy” talk in trying to convince those watching and wagering on Tigers games that free throws will not be an issue. Nevertheless, the smart shopper is wary of the silver-tongued Calipari, known for ability to sell flood insurance in Baja desert.

Memphis is shooting 58.5 percent from the charity stripe for the season and is off 15 for 32 effort against Mississippi State in non-cover, including lugubrious five for 12 in last 48 seconds. "We just have to be consistent," guard Chris Douglas-Roberts said. "But I feel very comfortable in my teammates at the line. We don't get nervous."

The best method to avoid an untimely defeat is to race out to big lead and hold on, which is something Memphis is certainly capable of. The Tigers actually outrebounded the bigger, stronger Bulldogs of MSU by eight, showing a front court tenacity sometimes lacking. Memphis doesn’t always crack the whip as 7-14 ATS record after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games this season proves, but they are 71-43 ATS versus good defensive teams like Michigan State, with shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less after 15 or more games in a season.

Calipari has joked this week about how rugged Michigan State plays and is friends with Spartans coach Tom Izzo. It’s no joke how well Michigan State is playing at the moment, with two convincing wins over Temple and Pittsburgh. What has made the Spartans better recently is other players have stepped up, especially when Raymar Morgan doesn’t play up to capabilities. Kalin Lucas and Drew Neitzel combined for 40 points against Pittsburgh and Goran Suton has shown improved post play in March. Michigan State converts 73.9 percent from the charity stripe and is 8-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season.

Memphis is 4.5-point favorite, with rising 136.5 point total at Sportsbook.com. With Neitzel scoring and dishing, the Spartans are dangerous, but Memphis has shown in the past they perform well against good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists, with 45-26 ATS record. Michigan State won’t rollover and is 8-2 ATS in road games versus very good clubs outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game this season.

Second-seeded Texas is a two-point favorite over number three Stanford and is erroneously being thought of having advantage of more Texans in the seats. Unquestionably, the local Houston fan base will have more Longhorn alumni and fans; however Reliant Stadium is huge facility, with potential lighting angles, poor sightlines, that both teams with have to contend with.

The most unheralded aspect of Texas is the defense, which has held opposing teams to 38.8 percent. Coach Rick Barnes has done a phenomenal job is teaching his players help defense and they are 13-5 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game after 15 or contests.

Stanford has to hope its backcourt can stay even with Longhorns back-liners and the Lopez twins can control the paint. Brook and Robin will be guarding the lane and the basket to prevent A.J. Augustin from making usual excursions into the lane. If they limit Augustin’s opportunities and dominate the Texas frontline, the Cardinal could fly to Regional Final. Stanford is 14-4 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games and 19-7 ATS in roadies after a win by six points or less.

Be alerted to the 134 total also in this conflict of Big 12 and Pac-10. Stanford is 12-4 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons and Texas is 15-5 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80 percent) in the same timeframe.

With the game predicted to be this close, the side and total will be affected by the free throw shooting. The Cardinal is 69.5 percent and the Horns are 68.2 percent, leading to possibility whoever converts more free tosses will be the winner.

StatFox Power Line- Memphis by 6, Texas by 1

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